NCAA basketball breakdown

In a year where already we've had an historic upset, it probably won't be surprising to forecast upsets in other sports, although the law of averages dictates that this year we probably won't have any other big upsets.

The next championship on tap, really, is college basketball which ends some time in April. Early indicators are that the front-runners are Memphis, Kansas, North Carolina, Duke, UCLA, and maybe another team from the Pac-10 or even a Big East team. Still, an interesting scenario would arise if Baylor actually makes it to the Dance. Baylor has done well, and as long as they stay healthy, they have a great chance to make a deep run. However, the overwhelming likelihood is that one of the other aforementioned teams will end up cutting down the nets. My bet at this point is on UCLA. Being a UNC fan, its hard to discount the Heels, but if they can't learn to play defense, they're going to find it tough sledding. Additionally, their poor performance without Ty Lawson against Duke showed their lack of versatility if certain players go down to injury. If they stay healthy, they're a player, but only if they stay healthy.

Kansas has a great amount of potential, and but for a rivalry loss to freshman phenom Michael Beasley and Kansas State, they'd still be undefeated, and probably would have a great argument for being ranked first. They have a versatile, explosive offense and a steady defense. Still, they have a couple of weaknesses, the greatest of which is that they don't have a tall big man to play from the block. If they were to run up against Roy Hibbert or a similar player, they'd have trouble with him.

Duke has a lot of momentum, and their depth is amazing, but their overall talent level is suspect. They only have one loss, but I think it is very important to note that they're not overwhelming any really good teams the way that they'd like to let on. Still, they're a good team and can go deep into the tournament.

Memphis is a joke. They have a good, different offense, but they play in Conference USA, and we're not talking the old C-USA with Louisville that was actually a good conference. Its easy for a team to be undefeated when they're not challenged frequently, and that's the case with Memphis. They'll make it to the tourney, and they may even be undefeated, but they won't make it past the first couple of rounds.

UCLA has a dynamic point guard (Darren Collison), great outside scorers, and a very impressive big man down low, all key ingredients in creating a championship. The only knock on them may be that they haven't had a lot of national exposure, and they have a tendency to play inconsistently at the wrong times. They're the best team in the top 10 as far as tournament play is concerned, and they're my odds on favorites to win it all this year.

I think the best chance for someone outside of the top five is probably Georgetown. They have a core of players returning from last year, and even though they've lost a few key games, they have the best big man in the country in Roy Hibbert, and as we saw last year, you can dominate a game in the tournament if you can slow it down and get your big man involved. Still, their offensive strength is their outside shooting game, and if a team overcommits to the inside, they'll pick them apart from beyond the arc. If a team spreads the court too much defensively, Roy Hibbert has the ability to dominate down low. Either way, Georgetown is dangerous, and they should at least be a huge factor in this year's championship.