Friday, February 8, 2008

MLB Preview - AL East Division

Keep in mind that all of these projections are subject to change if any new information comes out, such as trades or suspensions for steroid use, etc.

The first division in this year's MLB preview is the AL East in honor of the reigning World Champions:

1. Boston Red Sox - its hard to say that a defending World Champion won't be in the running for at least a division title, and the Red Sox actually look as impressive as they did this time last year; sure, many of their key players are a year older and a year further past their prime, but J.D. Drew proved his worth last season, and with the emergence of Jacoby Ellsbury the outfield has become even stronger; the infield is still impressive, and if Dustin Pedroia can have anywhere near the season he had last year, the offense looks potent, even if Jason Varitek is starting to show some wear and tear; the pitching staff is the key here, however, as Curt Schilling's elbow problems may end his career leaving a rotation of Beckett, Dice-K, Wakefield, Lester, and Buchholz and the Sox were counting on keeping Buchholz from pitching 150+ innings this year if possible. The bullpen is outstanding and Timlin to Delcarmen to Okajima to Papelbon has the potential to shorten a game to 5 innings.

2. New York Yankees - the Bombers could surprise some people this year, but it appears that they've got too many old players to make any huge impact; all indications are that Melky Cabrera will be the full-time centerfielder, meaning that Johnny Damon moves to left field to split time with Hideki Matsui, neither of which is a great option; if Abreu can return to the form he had before he won the Home Run Competition, that will add a little extra pop, but the defense will be suspect across the board, despite Jeter's improvements and Cano's emergence as a gold-glove calender second baseman; any offense that features A-Rod can't be all bad, and the Yanks will put up some runs, but unless Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, or Ian Kennedy can turn into an ace, the young pitching staff may still be a year away, and Mariano Rivera continues to age poorly; they may not even make the playoffs this year.

3. Blue Jays - strangely, the Jays are a good catcher away from being a real force in the AL East, which is a strange concept; Reed Johnson, Vernon Wells, and Alex Rios make this outfield arguably the most promising on both sides of the ball, and the addition of Scott Rolen and David Eckstein could turn this offense into one that can grind out runs necessary to put them over the top in this division; Halladay and Burnett head up a young, impressive rotation and Jeremy Accardo is an up and coming reliever who can provide a consistent lead-up to B.J. Ryan, if he's returned to form; the Jays have a shot at the playoffs this year, especially if Greg Zaun or Rod Barajas can pull his weight behind the plate.

4. Tampa Bay Rays - this should be the year the Rays get out of the cellar in the East; a good young infield featuring a rookie third baseman and a first baseman who is coming off a career year, the potential for a big year is there, especially if B.J. Upton can cut down on strikeouts and keep his other stats the same as last year and Rocco Baldelli fits into right field to replace Delmon Young; a deep rotation and bullpen strengthen their chances of doing well; they won't make the playoffs, but they won't have the first pick in next year's draft.

5. Baltimore Orioles - with all apologies to Orioles fans, this year the O's are going to suck badly; its not that they don't have talent, but they're a year or two and a player or two away from really competing; the trade of Erik Bedard made their rotation much weaker, but added a key outfielder in Adam Jones, and paired with Nick Markakis and Luke Scott, he anchors a great young outfield with loads of potential; the infield and pitching staff need work, but this is definitely a team headed in the right direction in the long term; I anticipate a basement finish this year, but in the next two years they should move up the ladder and even compete for a division title before too long.

This is also subject to the development of certain players during Spring Training, such as Jacoby Ellsbury and Adam Jones, who have the potential to exceed expectations or vastly underperform. Aside from the Red Sox being in first, the rest of the predictions are very speculative and I wouldn't put any money on any of this.

Coming Next: The Dogfight for the AL Central

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