Several years ago, someone said that the NL West was easily the worst division in baseball. The winner (San Diego) was 82-80, and all the other teams were sub-.500. However, the next year the Padres and Dodgers tied with 88 wins each, and last year the D-Backs won 90 and the Rockies won 89 (not counting the last win in the playoff). This year, the NL West is going to be the most heated, and possibly best top-to-bottom, in the league.
1. Arizona Diamondbacks - the reasons I'm picking the D-Backs to finish first are twofold: Micah Owings is the FIFTH starter, and they were confident enough to trade Jose Valverde; their offense may not be the best in the division, but their starters are by far the best; Webb-Big Unit-Haren-Dough Davis-Owings seems pretty good to me, and their bullpen overall is pretty darn good; if Randy Johnson can't go for most of the season, Edgar Gonzalez is having a good spring and could step in as a starter out of the 'pen; in the end, pitching wins championships, and the D-Backs have a chance of making it to the World Series this year
2. Colorado Rockies - the Rox are the sympathetic favorite to go back to the World Series, and I think they'll have a shot in the playoffs, as the second team in this division has a pretty good shot at the wild card; most of the team is back this year, which is scary, because they got much better as the season went on; if that continues, this team will be incredible down the stretch, and has the potential to look like an American League team; the only problem they'll face is who will become their 5th starter after Josh Fogg left; if Kip Wells wins it, they should just punt the whole season, because the best they can do is lose every fifth game; every position, however, is well established, and they are also deep at almost every spot
3. Los Angeles Dodgers - the Dodgers are a strange team; on the one hand, they have great youth (Kemp, Loney, Martin, LaRoche, Broxton) and on the other great experience (Garciaparra, Kent, Furcal, Pierre, almost the entire pitching staff); the cynical way of looking at that is that they have a lot of inexperienced kids who will probably screw up pretty badly, and they have a lot of injury prone old guys alongside them; the funny part of it is that Andy LaRoche, the starting third baseman who made his major league debut last year, is already injured, and oft-injured Nomar Garciaparra will start at third on opening day; I don't have a clue what to make of this team; they have the potential to win 100+ games or to fall to last and only win 40
4. San Francisco Giants - despite getting out from under the enormous shadow (mostly from the enormous head) of Barry Lamar Bonds, the Giants are still a bad team, and are mostly old; while their outfield is full of centerfielders-by-trade, it is more properly thought of as full of leftfielders, as none of these guys have the kind of skills that really make them a true centerfielder (Rowand is the closest); aside from Dan Ortmeier, their infield is OLD, and Bengie Molina has reached the point where catchers start to decline in worth, and maybe even exceeded it; the bright spot, and thus the reason they're not going to finish in last place, is their pitching staff, specifically their young, but uber-talented rotation; if they can cobble together a decent bullpen run and their older players regain some youth, they could surprise someone, but even Ponce de Leon couldn't help them win the division
5. San Diego Padres - the Padres continue their fall from the top of the division, as they are pretty much the only team that hasn't gotten better from last year; Jim Edmonds is my favorite player, but at this point in his career, he isn't much better (if at all) than Mike Cameron, and Tad Iguchi is not exactly a top-tier second baseman; if Kevin Kouzmanoff lives up to his potential, and Adrian Gonzalez continues to improve his already stellar contact-hitting, they could be better than I'm thinking, but still last in the division; this will be Trevor Hoffman's last year as the closer, because he'll either retire or lose his job; even Jake Peavy and Chris Young won't be able to stop this freefall, and Peavy won't repeat as NL Cy Young
That's about it, but I may end up making a few predictions for post-season awards and breakout players eventually.
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